Logic / Logic 354 · Atom · ~20 seconds
Regression to the Mean
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Extreme outcomes are typically followed by less extreme ones, because extremes are part luck — and luck doesn't repeat on schedule.
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Blistering rookie season, ordinary sophomore season. No curse; just the mean reasserting itself.
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Regression manufactures illusions of causation: scold after a bad performance, and improvement follows *anyway*. Punishment gets credit the arithmetic earned.
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