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Logic  /  Logic 353  ·  Atom · ~20 seconds

The Gambler's Fallacy

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Treating independent trials as if past outcomes change future odds.

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Five heads running; "tails is due." The coin has no memory and owes no debts.

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The near-miss: if the process might *not* be independent — a suspect coin — a streak is legitimate evidence about the coin. Different inference entirely.