Artificial Intelligence / AI 0577 · Atom · ~20 seconds
Forecasts Are Extrapolations
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State
Forecasts about artificial intelligence are themselves predictions from past distributions — and every lesson about extrapolation applies to them in full.
Show
Seventy years of confident timelines, wrong in both directions: winters called permanent, springs called imminent.
Watch for
Scale curves rewarding extrapolation and walls of disputed yield are both real — neither settles the other.