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Artificial Intelligence  /  AI 0288  ·  Atom · ~20 seconds

The Weighted Average

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The weighted average of uncertain outcomes multiplies each outcome by its chance and adds the results — the number a repeated gamble settles toward.

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A street vendor: rain, chance 0.3, pays 90; dry pays 20 — the average is 27 plus 14: 41.

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No single day yields 41 — the number is a long-run rate, not a forecast of tomorrow.